事件
根(gen)據(ju)行業協會數據(ju),5月份挖(wa)機總銷售(shou)11271臺,同比(bi)增(zeng)加106%,2017年(nian)1-5月挖(wa)機合計(ji)銷售(shou)66135臺,同比(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)100.5%。

評論
下游投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi):固定資(zi)(zi)產投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)下降(jiang),設備購(gou)置費(fei)用(yong)(yong)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)提(ti)高(gao)。從統計局公(gong)(gong)布的(de)(de)1-5月固定資(zi)(zi)產投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)數據來(lai)看,基建投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)(+16.7%)、房地(di)產投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)完(wan)成(cheng)額(+8.8%)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)較上月均(jun)有下降(jiang)。從細分構(gou)成(cheng)來(lai)看,用(yong)(yong)于(yu)設備購(gou)置的(de)(de)費(fei)用(yong)(yong)為(wei)3.54萬億,同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)7.7%,增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)較上月提(ti)高(gao)0.5個百分點,在總投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)中的(de)(de)比(bi)例升至17.4%。另外,水利、環境和公(gong)(gong)共設施管(guan)理投(tou)(tou)資(zi)(zi)保持高(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang),同比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)達24.5%。

存(cun)量(liang)(liang)更新(xin)疊(die)加(jia)補(bu)庫(ku)存(cun)需(xu)求(qiu),5月挖(wa)(wa)機(ji)銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)保持(chi)(chi)高(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)。根據(ju)協會數據(ju),5月挖(wa)(wa)機(ji)銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)維持(chi)(chi)高(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang),同比增(zeng)(zeng)速達到106%;從產品結構來(lai)看(kan),小挖(wa)(wa)與(yu)大(da)挖(wa)(wa)增(zeng)(zeng)速均超過100%,顯示(shi)下(xia)游需(xu)求(qiu)中來(lai)自農田水(shui)利、小型(xing)市政工程(cheng)以及大(da)型(xing)礦山基(ji)建(jian)項(xiang)目的(de)需(xu)求(qiu)較好。從下(xia)游投資(zi)來(lai)看(kan),今年(nian)下(xia)半年(nian)基(ji)建(jian)與(yu)房地產投資(zi)增(zeng)(zeng)速預(yu)期放緩,對(dui)工程(cheng)機(ji)械設(she)備需(xu)求(qiu)可能(neng)產生一定影響。我(wo)們認為工程(cheng)機(ji)械的(de)高(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)速有存(cun)量(liang)(liang)更新(xin)與(yu)補(bu)庫(ku)存(cun)的(de)驅動因素,從長(chang)期來(lai)看(kan),本輪工程(cheng)機(ji)械和采礦類傳統設(she)備的(de)更新(xin)與(yu)復(fu)蘇周期可能(neng)會延續;今年(nian)1-5月挖(wa)(wa)機(ji)銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)66135臺,按照往年(nian)占比推(tui)算,預(yu)計今年(nian)全年(nian)挖(wa)(wa)機(ji)銷(xiao)量(liang)(liang)在12萬臺左右。

龍(long)(long)(long)頭公司(si)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)更為強勁,經營業(ye)績明顯改善。從品牌銷(xiao)量來(lai)看,各龍(long)(long)(long)頭公司(si)銷(xiao)量增(zeng)速高于行業(ye)、市場(chang)份額(e)向龍(long)(long)(long)頭集中(zhong),5月(yue)三一(yi)(yi)挖機(ji)(ji)銷(xiao)量2160臺(tai)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)120%,徐工(gong)(gong)(gong)1220臺(tai)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)190%,柳工(gong)(gong)(gong)741臺(tai)、同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)160%。從一(yi)(yi)季(ji)度(du)報告(gao)來(lai)看,工(gong)(gong)(gong)程機(ji)(ji)械(xie)龍(long)(long)(long)頭公司(si)業(ye)績大幅改善,三一(yi)(yi)重工(gong)(gong)(gong)一(yi)(yi)季(ji)度(du)營業(ye)收入(ru)94億(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)79%,凈(jing)(jing)利潤(run)(run)7.46億(yi),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)727%;徐工(gong)(gong)(gong)機(ji)(ji)械(xie)營業(ye)收入(ru)59.98億(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)72%,實現凈(jing)(jing)利潤(run)(run)2.02億(yi),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)1810%;柳工(gong)(gong)(gong)營業(ye)收入(ru)24.32億(yi)元(yuan),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)15%,實現凈(jing)(jing)利潤(run)(run)1.08億(yi),同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)623%。工(gong)(gong)(gong)程機(ji)(ji)械(xie)龍(long)(long)(long)頭企業(ye)PE估值逐步進入(ru)合理區間,三一(yi)(yi)/徐工(gong)(gong)(gong)/柳工(gong)(gong)(gong)2017年預計PE分別為21/37/39倍。

投資建議
下游固定資產投資保持(chi)增(zeng)(zeng)長,設(she)備購置增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)提(ti)高(gao)、占比提(ti)升,帶來工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)機(ji)械(xie)需求增(zeng)(zeng)加,工(gong)(gong)程(cheng)機(ji)械(xie)龍頭銷(xiao)量增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)快于行業、市場份額(e)持(chi)續提(ti)高(gao)。持(chi)續推薦:柳工(gong)(gong)、三一重工(gong)(gong)、徐工(gong)(gong)機(ji)械(xie)等。

風險提示
固(gu)定(ding)資產投資大幅放(fang)緩;原材料(liao)成本上升(sheng)降低盈利能力。